USDJPY moderately declines on Thursday amid mixed fundamentals. Investors are concerned about the possibility of new US tariffs on Japanese exports. This weakens the yen’s position as a safe haven asset.  At the same time, expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan in response to rising inflation support the yen.


Japanese companies coordinate significant wage increases for the third consecutive year, boosting consumer spending and inflation. These factors increase the possibility of further tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan.


On the other hand, the US dollar remains under pressure amid expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. According to the US Department of Labor, the Consumer Price Index posted by 2.8% year-on-year in February. This is lower than the expected 2.9% and the previous reading of 3.0%. These indicators reinforce market expectations of more aggressive Fed policy easing amid a potential slowdown in the economy caused by tough US tariff policies.


A 25% tariff on US steel and aluminum imports and the threat of additional reciprocal tariffs next month have added concerns about escalation of trade tensions.


Market participants are focusing on the upcoming publication of the US Producer Price Index, which may provide additional signals on the Fed’s further actions.


From a technical point of view, the USDJPY pair is forming a downtrend on the H8 timeframe. The fundamental picture is in favor of the rate weakening. However, corrective movements against the main trend are necessary to maintain the trend dynamics. Signs of the pair growth are present. MACD indicator (standard parameters) demonstrates divergence, while the volumes in the negative zone are decreasing.


The best entry point for buying is near the channel support, around the level of 147.00.


Signal:

The short-term outlook for USDJPY is to buy.

The target is at the level of 150.10.

Part of the profit should be taken near the level of 148.70.

A stop-loss could be placed at the level of 145.25.


The bullish scenario is short-term, so a trading volume should not exceed 2% of your balance.